Framework
RICE Product Prioritisation
Put competing product bets on one comparable score — reach × impact × confidence, divided by the total effort required to ship.
Use RICE when the roadmap is being pulled toward the loudest request, the newest idea or whatever someone has labelled "strategic". Start with one goal and one time horizon; scores are only comparable when every candidate is trying to move the same kind of outcome over the same period.
RICE score = (Reach × Impact × Confidence) ÷ Effort. A higher score suggests more expected impact for each person-month invested.
Score every product bet
Reach
Estimate how many users or customers the bet will affect within a defined period — for example, customers per quarter. Use one unit and horizon across the whole list.
Impact
Estimate the effect on each person against the shared goal: massive = 3, high = 2, medium = 1, low = 0.5, minimal = 0.25.
Confidence
Discount optimistic estimates by the strength of the evidence: high = 100%, medium = 80%, low = 50%. Below that, treat it as a moonshot that needs discovery.
Effort
Estimate total person-months across product, design, engineering, research and QA. Count the whole team cost, not just engineering time.
Rank, challenge, decide
Calculate and sort the scores, then debate the assumptions rather than the arithmetic. Record any deliberate override and the strategic reason for it.
A worked roadmap
| Product bet | Reach | Impact | Confidence | Effort | RICE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk export | 250 | 2 | 100% | 1 | 500 |
| Onboarding checklist | 1,200 | 1 | 80% | 2 | 480 |
| AI support assistant | 900 | 2 | 50% | 6 | 150 |
In this crafted example, the unglamorous bulk export narrowly leads because it has strong evidence and takes little effort. The AI assistant reaches more people and sounds bigger, but weak confidence and six person-months expose the bet hiding inside the excitement. Discovery could raise its confidence; strategy could still justify an override. Either way, the team can now name why.
RICE is a flashlight, not an autopilot. The score starts the prioritisation conversation; it does not make the decision. Its real value is exposing which assumption makes an idea look important — and where you need evidence before committing.
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